Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 5
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
10/4/17
After another wild week of upsets, contrarian teams covering and a mind-boggling bad beat, the NFL is looking more and more like an even playing field than a top-heavy league without parity.
Many people's preseason expectations about most teams likely have changed, and they already are forming new ideas based on this past week's games. This phenomenon, called "recency bias," is one that bettors can exploit.
For this week's system, we are going to focus on fading teams that are coming off a great performance. Using historical data from Bet Labs Sports, we will look at favorites that covered the spread in their previous game by at least 13 points.
TEAM ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI
All 588-525 (52.8%) +34.25 +3.1%
Favorites 325-273 (54.3%) +36.15 +6.0%
Dogs/ Pick 'ems 250-236 (51.4%) +1.79 +0.4%
As you can see by the table, fading teams coming off of a big cover is a profitable strategy in general, but 'dogs and pick 'ems are bogging down the potential profits. In nearly 500 games, they've barely yielded a profit. By eliminating them and only fading favorites off of a big cover, we nearly double our return on investment (ROI) and push our winning percentage to over 54 percent.
Why does this work?
Bettors overreact all the time, especially public bettors known as "squares." They place their bets based on their gut feeling, fandom and recent results, rather than data and betting trends. Since we are a month into the season already, bettors probably think they have it all figured out: which teams are making the playoffs; which teams are bad bets; which team is the worst in the league; and the like.
However, four games is still a very small sample size. Some teams' records could swing two games in either direction based on the outcomes of just a few plays. This can likely help explain why this time of year has historically been the best time to follow this system. The month of October has been especially profitable: a winning percentage of 61.1 percent, over 28 units won and a return on investment of 19.4 percent.
Week 5 System Matches
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5)
Don't get scared. I know many people are not going to want to bet on a team that just lost to the Jets, but that's exactly what you want to do this week.
The Steelers, who closed as a -3.5 favorite in Baltimore, easily took care of the Ravens, who continue to scuffle after their hot start. They won 26-9, covering the spread by 13.5 points and qualifying for this system in the process.
Last week, Westgate Las Vegas Superbook had the line at -7.5 for this game. But Westgate reopened it at -8.5 after Sunday's results. At +8.5, you're going to get some value on Blake Bortles and the Jags.
The pick: Jaguars +8.5
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Both the Bills and Bengals played very well on Sunday, which could make this pick the trendiest one of the bunch. Fading Cincinnati is the play because they were favorites last week, while Buffalo was not.
Cincinnati, who was just a 3-point favorite against the Browns, won 31-7 to cover by 21 points. Buffalo covered by 14.5 themselves but easily had the more impressive performance in the eyes of most people, since they upset the Falcons.
Right now, 63 percent of spread bettors are taking the Bills, who have moved from +3.5 to +3 at Westgate since opening on Sunday night. At some offshore books, such as Bookmaker, the line has moved to +2.5.
Do your best to get the Bills +3, seeing as three is such a key number in football.
The pick: Bills +3
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
The Seahawks finally broke out against the Colts on Sunday night, marking their first cover of the season. Though they closed as a lofty 12.5-point favorite, they were still able to win 46-18 and cover by 15.5 points. However, the Rams are slowly becoming one of the trendiest teams in the NFL. With an impressive win in Dallas this past weekend, the Rams are now the 3-1 NFC West division leaders.
Last week, Westgate's early line had Seattle as the 3-point favorite. Even though Seattle finally played well, the Rams hype is real. Los Angeles is now the 2.5-point favorite, something nobody would have guessed before the season.
They opened as a 1-point favorite at some offshore books, but the line has reached 2.5 around the market. Try to get the Rams now, before the line reaches three.
The pick: Rams -2.5
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2)
Neither one of these teams has played well out of the gates this season, but Green Bay was able to put up a convincing victory over the Bears on Thursday night, covering the spread by 13.5 points.
After the Cowboys' loss to the aforementioned Rams, many folks are shying away from them. As of Tuesday afternoon, they're only receiving 23 percent of spread bets, making them a strong contrarian choice, in addition to a match for this system. So far, teams this season getting less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone 14-5 against the spread.
The pick: Cowboys -2
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflect current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
10/4/17
After another wild week of upsets, contrarian teams covering and a mind-boggling bad beat, the NFL is looking more and more like an even playing field than a top-heavy league without parity.
Many people's preseason expectations about most teams likely have changed, and they already are forming new ideas based on this past week's games. This phenomenon, called "recency bias," is one that bettors can exploit.
For this week's system, we are going to focus on fading teams that are coming off a great performance. Using historical data from Bet Labs Sports, we will look at favorites that covered the spread in their previous game by at least 13 points.
TEAM ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI
All 588-525 (52.8%) +34.25 +3.1%
Favorites 325-273 (54.3%) +36.15 +6.0%
Dogs/ Pick 'ems 250-236 (51.4%) +1.79 +0.4%
As you can see by the table, fading teams coming off of a big cover is a profitable strategy in general, but 'dogs and pick 'ems are bogging down the potential profits. In nearly 500 games, they've barely yielded a profit. By eliminating them and only fading favorites off of a big cover, we nearly double our return on investment (ROI) and push our winning percentage to over 54 percent.
Why does this work?
Bettors overreact all the time, especially public bettors known as "squares." They place their bets based on their gut feeling, fandom and recent results, rather than data and betting trends. Since we are a month into the season already, bettors probably think they have it all figured out: which teams are making the playoffs; which teams are bad bets; which team is the worst in the league; and the like.
However, four games is still a very small sample size. Some teams' records could swing two games in either direction based on the outcomes of just a few plays. This can likely help explain why this time of year has historically been the best time to follow this system. The month of October has been especially profitable: a winning percentage of 61.1 percent, over 28 units won and a return on investment of 19.4 percent.
Week 5 System Matches
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5)
Don't get scared. I know many people are not going to want to bet on a team that just lost to the Jets, but that's exactly what you want to do this week.
The Steelers, who closed as a -3.5 favorite in Baltimore, easily took care of the Ravens, who continue to scuffle after their hot start. They won 26-9, covering the spread by 13.5 points and qualifying for this system in the process.
Last week, Westgate Las Vegas Superbook had the line at -7.5 for this game. But Westgate reopened it at -8.5 after Sunday's results. At +8.5, you're going to get some value on Blake Bortles and the Jags.
The pick: Jaguars +8.5
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Both the Bills and Bengals played very well on Sunday, which could make this pick the trendiest one of the bunch. Fading Cincinnati is the play because they were favorites last week, while Buffalo was not.
Cincinnati, who was just a 3-point favorite against the Browns, won 31-7 to cover by 21 points. Buffalo covered by 14.5 themselves but easily had the more impressive performance in the eyes of most people, since they upset the Falcons.
Right now, 63 percent of spread bettors are taking the Bills, who have moved from +3.5 to +3 at Westgate since opening on Sunday night. At some offshore books, such as Bookmaker, the line has moved to +2.5.
Do your best to get the Bills +3, seeing as three is such a key number in football.
The pick: Bills +3
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
The Seahawks finally broke out against the Colts on Sunday night, marking their first cover of the season. Though they closed as a lofty 12.5-point favorite, they were still able to win 46-18 and cover by 15.5 points. However, the Rams are slowly becoming one of the trendiest teams in the NFL. With an impressive win in Dallas this past weekend, the Rams are now the 3-1 NFC West division leaders.
Last week, Westgate's early line had Seattle as the 3-point favorite. Even though Seattle finally played well, the Rams hype is real. Los Angeles is now the 2.5-point favorite, something nobody would have guessed before the season.
They opened as a 1-point favorite at some offshore books, but the line has reached 2.5 around the market. Try to get the Rams now, before the line reaches three.
The pick: Rams -2.5
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2)
Neither one of these teams has played well out of the gates this season, but Green Bay was able to put up a convincing victory over the Bears on Thursday night, covering the spread by 13.5 points.
After the Cowboys' loss to the aforementioned Rams, many folks are shying away from them. As of Tuesday afternoon, they're only receiving 23 percent of spread bets, making them a strong contrarian choice, in addition to a match for this system. So far, teams this season getting less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone 14-5 against the spread.
The pick: Cowboys -2
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflect current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
